Oregon State University: Global Warming
Long Term Global Warming May be Tough to Reverse - 02/25/08
A sophisticated new climate model simulation of long-term global warming suggests that even if greenhouse gas emissions are reduced, the planet will continue to get warmer for 100 to 200 years.
The delay would be caused by a warming of the world's oceans, which would increase biological productivity as well as limit the oceans' ability to absorb atmospheric heat and carbon dioxide, according to Andreas Schmittner, an oceanographer at Oregon State University and lead author of the study.
"The results of the model are somewhat alarming because it shows that we cannot wait until we are in danger before beginning to address global warming," Schmittner said. "We need to be ahead of the curve."
chmittner's model is one of the few long-term climate simulations to include carbon uptake by the oceans and land in looking at global warming scenarios. Most previous models have focused solely on estimates of future climate without projecting interactions between the carbon cycle and the Earth's biological components.
Research has shown, however, that as the oceans warm, phytoplankton blooms will increase and that additional production could exacerbate global warming projections.
Computer modeling of global warming has become a critical area of research and scientists are continually refining models in an attempt to improve their accuracy. They often test their models by looking at historic data, then projecting it ahead and comparing it to what actually happened.
